Crypto Market Revival? Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin's Boom
2024-06-08Bittime - Arthur Hayes crypto market “revival” predictions. Hayes, who is the former CEO of BitMEX, sees the potential for a surge in Bitcoin prices following the decision by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates.
Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada became the first major central bank to cut interest rates this year. The interest rate was reduced by a quarter point to 4.75%. Not wanting to be left behind, the European Central Bank followed similar steps by reducing interest rates by 0.25% to 4.25%.
According to Hayes in his Substack post on June 6, this decision to cut interest rates will be the "fuel" that recovers the crypto market from the summer doldrums in the northern hemisphere.
Movement Crypto Market Estimated in August 2024
Although optimistic, Hayes does not predict the Bank of England (BoE) will follow suit immediately. He estimates that the main catalyst for crypto market movements will only occur in August.
This coincided with the United States (US) Federal Reserve holding the Jackson Hole Symposium. Usually, at this event significant economic policy changes are announced.
Before the Jackson Hole Symposium, another important economic agenda that needs to be paid attention to is the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on June 11-12, followed by the G7 Summit in Apulia, Italy on June 13-14.
"The big question is whether the Fed will start lowering interest rates closer to the US presidential election in November," Hayes said. He continued, the Fed usually does not take the decision to reduce interest rates close to a general election, considering that inflation is still a major concern. Hayes predicts that the Fed will maintain interest rates at its next meeting.
Hayes also predicted there would be no policy changes from the Bank of Japan. However, he assessed that the Bank of England meeting held after the G7 Summit had the potential to surprise the market with a cut in interest rates, following the trend from the BOC and ECB.
"The BoE has nothing to lose [from lowering interest rates]," said Hayes.
"The Conservatives are likely to lose the next election, so there is no reason for [the BoE] to obey orders from their former colonies in order to suppress inflation."
The Beginning of Policy Easing?
Despite predictions about specific central banks, Hayes sees broader trends.
"In general, central banks are starting to enter a monetary policy easing cycle. This is a good time to go long (buy and hold) Bitcoin and then follow with altcoins," concluded Hayes.
He also conveyed this bullish view to the projects in the Maelstrom portfolio.
"For projects on Maelstrom asking for my opinion on their token launch, now is a great time to launch!" Hayes exclaimed.
Previously in May, when Bitcoin prices were around IDR 944 million (exchange rate $59,000), Hayes had predicted a potential increase back to the area of IDR 1.1 billion (exchange rate $70,000) driven by the "disguised money printing" policy of the Fed and the Ministry of Finance US.
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