Should You Sell or Hold the Crypto Airdrop? How to Make Decisions to Profit!

Bittime - In the world of cryptocurrency, airdrops are gaining popularity in 2024. Many projects have already released and distributed their tokens, and along with this, the number of upcoming distributions is expected to increase. 

However, many airdrop participants are confused about the next step whether they should hold their tokens or sell them immediately after receiving them.

Studi CryptoRank

A study by CryptoRank looked at the nine largest airdrops to determine the peak value of the token and test whether the “sell on the first candle” rule applies. 

One project that is attracting attention is AltLayer, a protocol that provides a modular computing layer for rollups. On January 25, eligible active users received tokens at an average price of $0.35. 

However, those who chose to hold the token until it peaked on March 27 saw the price almost double, namely $0.688.

Project Jupiter Performance

Another project, Jupiter, is one of the largest liquidity aggregators on the Solana network. On the day of distribution, more than 955,000 wallets participated, which caused network issues. The JUP token started trading at $0.6 and rose slightly to $0.66 on the first day. On April 1, the token reached its peak, allowing sellers to earn almost three times the initial price.

Dimension Advantages

Dymension, which serves as a modular computing layer for the Cosmos ecosystem, also showed interesting performance. DYM token started trading at $5.7 on the first day and peaked at $8.57 just two weeks after listing. 

Meanwhile, Pixels, a Play-to-Earn project, offered PIXEL tokens at an initial price of around $0.5, which then jumped to $1.02 on March 11.

Starknet Challenge

Starknet, despite facing problems in its token distribution, managed to reach a price of $2.4 on the first day and a peak of $2.68 on March 13. EtherFi, which launched on March 18, started trading at $3.3 and reached a peak price of $8.52 within ten days. 

Meanwhile, Ethena had just started distribution of its token, which was offered at $0.55 and within a week the price jumped to ~$1.52. However, volatility is still high and users are still in the stage of earning rewards.

Conclusions and Recommendations

Of the seven projects analyzed, all showed that the token's peak value was not reached immediately after launch, but rather some time afterward. This suggests that the “sell on the first candle” principle may not always apply, especially in bull markets. 

The decision to hold or sell an airdrop must consider a variety of factors, including overall market sentiment, the team's product and marketing strategy, and market behavior. Each case is unique and requires in-depth analysis.

Future Opportunities

By understanding this data, users can make better decisions about when it is appropriate to sell or hold their tokens. With many upcoming projects, such as zkSync and LayerZero, the opportunities for profit are still wide open.

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