Why Hasn't Altcoin Season Happened Yet: 425 Billion Is the Key?

Bittime - Analyst Rekt Capital recently emphasized the importance of the $425 billion market cap level in determining the next altcoin season. 

According to his analysis, this level has been a strong resistance point in the past, but recent trends suggest that it may weaken.

Read more about the analysis of why altcoin season hasn't happened yet in this article!

Why Hasn't Altcoin Season Happened Yet?

In a post on X, Rekt Capital pointed out that while the altcoin’s market cap initially handled a rejection at this level, the correction that occurred was more subtle compared to previous major retracements of 69% and 85%.

This indicates a possible change in market dynamics, where resistance at the $425 billion level may soon turn into a support level. 

If this happens, it could be an important catalyst for the upcoming altseason.

Also read: Ari Wallet Daily Quiz 16 March 2025, Claim Prize Today!

Bitcoin Dominance and Its Role in Altseason

Another indicator of a potential altseason is Bitcoin's market dominance. Crypto analyst CryptoGoos notes that Bitcoin dominance has reached its highest daily close since 2021, which is currently above 61%. 

Historically, altcoin seasons tend to occur whenever Bitcoin's dominance reaches its peak.

Looking back at previous market cycles, Bitcoin dominance peaked at around 70% before the altcoin market experienced a surge. If this pattern repeats itself, it could signal a shift where altcoins start to outperform Bitcoin as liquidity flows to alternative assets. 

This shift is a common trend in the crypto cycle, where capital moves from Bitcoin to altcoins after BTC consolidates.

Altcoin Seasonality Index: Key Indicators

Crypto analyst Mags provides additional insight via the Altcoin Season Index, which is used to measure market phases. According to Mags, this index has two main zones:

• Bitcoin Season – When the index is below 25, it indicates that Bitcoin is outperforming altcoins.
• Altcoin Season – When the index is above 75, it indicates that altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin.

Mags noted that the index peaked on December 7, 2024, which was then followed by a sharp decline in altcoin performance. 

Based on historical trends, when the index falls below 25, it typically remains at that level for several weeks or months before eventually climbing back above 75, which historically marks the start of the altseason.

Also read: BTC Price Prediction 15, 16, 17 March 2025: Market Trend & Prospect Analysis

Is the Next Altcoin Rally Near?

Analyzing past data, Mags highlights that the index has entered Bitcoin Season seven out of nine times between the second quarter (Q2) and the third quarter (Q3) in various market cycles. 

Typically, after hitting a bottom, the index rises again within a few months, leading to a surge in altcoins.

If historical patterns hold, a strong altcoin rally could be on the way. Additionally, based on the four-year market cycle, Mags suggests that this upcoming altseason may be the last major rally before the next bear market begins.

Conclusion

As the market develops, the $425 billion market cap level, Bitcoin dominance, and the Altcoin Season Index will be key indicators to pay attention to in predicting the next altcoin season.

FAQ

1. What is Altcoin Season? 

Altcoin Season is a period where most altcoins experience a greater price increase than Bitcoin within a certain period of time.

2. How does Bitcoin's dominance affect the likelihood of an altcoin season?

High Bitcoin dominance is usually an early indicator before the altcoin season begins. According to CryptoGoos, Bitcoin's current dominance has reached its highest level since 2021, sitting above 61%. 

3. When can Altcoin Season occur? 

There is no exact time, but some analysts believe that an altcoin season could happen

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Reference 

Scoot Matherson,  Altcoin Season: Crypto Expert Reveals Why $425 Billion Is Important, accessed March 16, 2025.

Author: SD