Token Launching in a Bull Market Doesn't Guarantee Long-Term Success?
2024-07-08Bittime - In the crypto world, bull markets are often considered an ideal period to launch new tokens. Bull markets are characterized by significant increases in asset prices, often driven by investor optimism and increased demand.
Impact of the Fitting Cyclear to Token Value
However, even though it may seem profitable, launching a token in a bull market does not always guarantee long-term success. According to Haseeb, managing partner of Dragonfly, although many founders try to launch their tokens during a bull market, these tokens will still face a bear market.
Haseeb expressed skepticism regarding the impact of market cycles on the long-term value of tokens. He argues that tokens launched during bull markets do not systematically underperform simply because of the timing of their launch.
According to him, if there is evidence that the market cycle influences the long-term value of the token, then this would indicate that there are groups of tokens that consistently perform worse than others due to the market cycle at which they are launched. However, he doubts this and has not found systematic evidence to support this view.
Competition and Funding in a Bull Market
Haseeb also emphasized that although tokens launched in a bull market may have more funds for growth, competition in the market is also relative.
If the market experiences a decline of 50%, native token ecosystem funds will also fall by 50%, leaving market share remaining relatively unchanged.
This shows that although there are financial advantages in launching a token in a bull market, market risks remain and must be taken into account.
Fundraising and Token Launch
Haseeb emphasized that timing in fundraising events is important, but he discussed token launches (Token Generation Events or TGE), which is more akin to a live listing than a fundraising event.
Many founders seek to launch their tokens during bull markets, hoping to capitalize on rising prices and high investor interest. However, even if a token launches in a bull market, it will eventually have to weather a bear market as well.
Bull Market and Token Launch
Launching a token in a bull market does offer several advantages, such as greater funding potential and high investor interest. However, as stated by Haseeb from Dragonfly, there are challenges and risks that must be faced.
Fluctuating market cycles can influence long-term value of the token, and despite financial gains, competition in the market remains. Additionally, while the timing of fundraising is important, a token launch is more akin to a direct listing that still has to face the challenges of a bear market.
For founders and investors, it is important to consider not only the short-term benefits of a bull market, but also the long-term risks associated with market cycles.
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