Trump Shooting Raises Chances of Winning at Polymarket

Bittime – Former US president Donald Trump's chances of returning to the White House jumped to an all-time high on Saturday after he was injured in a shooting incident at a rally in Pennsylvania, according to traders at Polymarket.

Trump Shooting Incident in Pennsylvania

Donald Trump was injured in a shooting incident that occurred during a rally in Pennsylvania. A Secret Service spokesperson confirmed that Trump was "safe" following the incident, as reported by The New York Times. In this incident, a suspected shooter was killed and a bystander was also reported to have died. Photos and videos showing Trump with blood on his face and raising his fists in the air circulated widely on social media, showing his steadfast attitude despite his injuries.

Impact of the Shooting on Trump's Chances of Victory

After the incident, Polymarket's "Yes" shares, which are betting contracts on whether Trump will win the presidential election, rose ten cents to 70 cents. This means the market now sees a 70% chance that Trump will win the November election. Each share pays $1 if the prediction is correct, and zero if not. These bets are programmed into smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain and settled in USDC, a stablecoin that trades 1:1 with the dollar.

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Trump Meme Token Surge

Not only did Trump's chances of winning rise, the "Polifi" meme token named after Trump also saw a spike. MAGA, for example, rose 34% in the last 24 hours to $8.38, according to CoinGecko data. Meanwhile, satirical token TREMP rose 67% to $0.6471. The CoinDesk 20 index, which is an indicator of the overall cryptocurrency market, rose 3.31% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin, the oldest and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rose 3.26% to $59,735.17.

Trump's Support for Crypto

During the campaign, Trump has shown full support for cryptocurrencies. The Republican Party platform even promises to end the Biden administration's crackdown on the industry. This is one of the factors driving increased trading activity related to Trump on Polymarket.

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Polymarkets and Enthusiasm for Political Betting

Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan four years ago, has seen high trading volumes in 2024, primarily due to enthusiasm for political betting ahead of the US presidential election. The US presidential election winning contract on Polymarket recorded total bets of $252 million, setting a record for the company and the crypto-based prediction market.

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PredictIt, a traditional betting site that settles bets in fiat, also shows a similar trend. Trump shares rose from 59 cents before the shooting to 66 cents before finally stabilizing at 65 cents. Prediction markets are often considered a more reliable indicator of sentiment and a better forecasting method than opinion polls. People who make predictions are putting their money on the line, so are encouraged to do in-depth research and express honest opinions.

Conclusion

The shooting incident that injured Trump in Pennsylvania not only increased his winning chances at Polymarket but also moved the Trump-related cryptocurrency market. With full support for crypto and a surge in political betting activity, Trump continues to take center stage in the 2024 US presidential election campaign.

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