What are the chances of Kamala Harris winning the US election?

Bittime - Kamala Harris' chances of winning the presidency of the United States have increased significantly on the prediction market, Polymarket. Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, now has a 45% chance of winning the election. 

This percentage rose by around 6% in the last 24 hours. In contrast, the chances of Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, fell to 53%.

Chances of Kamala Haris being elected US President increase

According to data from Polymarket, this increase in Harris' chances occurred after Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race about two weeks ago. Between July 21 and August 1, Harris' odds increased from 29% to 45%, while Trump's odds dropped 10 percentage points over the same period.

On the other hand, the chances of third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remain steady at 1%. Kennedy is known for his pro-crypto stance and is on the ballot in several US states.

The increase in Harris' chances at Polymarket is in line with Harris' increasingly strong campaign in the three months leading up to Election Day. 

Harris' campaign raised $200 million in donations in one week, according to Rob Flaherty, Harris' deputy campaign manager. The campaign is also increasingly active in key states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Kamala Haris' Popularity Is Also Increasing

Harris' popularity has also risen in national polls. A recent survey from market research firm Leger conducted between July 26 and July 28 showed that 48% of voters planned to vote for Harris, giving Harris a seven percentage point lead over Trump.

Within the Democratic Party itself, Harris is increasingly popular. About 80% of Democrats say they are satisfied with Harris' presidential candidacy, according to a survey from the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Polymarket Records Increase

As pre-election political enthusiasm increases in the US, Polymarket recorded a significant spike in activity. 

According to data from Dune Analytics, trading volume on the prediction market platform reached more than $387 million in July, more than three times the previous month, largely driven by the US election.

To address the increasing demand from bettors, Polymarket started using the services of crypto payments company MoonPay last week. Thus, bettors can now pay for their bets via bank transfers and credit card payments facilitated by MoonPay.

With Election Day approaching, political dynamics in the United States are heating up. Kamala Harris' improving chances at the Polymarket reflect a positive trend for the Democratic campaign, even though the road to the White House remains long and challenging.

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